After the Fires: What’s Next for Southern California Housing?

03/27/2025 9:10 AM | The Hoyt Organization (Administrator)

At this month’s Southern California Development Forum Panel, industry leaders came together to discuss the pressing issues facing the region’s real estate market. Moderator Gilbert Rocca, Managing Principal of AC Martin, led an insightful conversation on the impact of recent crises—ranging from COVID-19 and legislative changes like Measure ULA to the devastating 2025 wildfires. The discussion underscored the urgent need for streamlined regulations, government support, and industry collaboration to accelerate housing development and recovery efforts. 

To provide expert perspectives, panelists Bryson Reaume, Founder and CEO of The Cooperative LA, Kamran Paydar, First Vice President of CBRE Capital Markets, Chris Marsh, Founder of Cherry Tree Capital Partners, and Gabe Hungerford, Principal of Trammell Crow Company shared how these challenges are shaping the future of Los Angeles housing. The panel explored key topics such as post-pandemic market uncertainty, the role of state policies in development, and opportunities to drive investment and innovation in fire-impacted areas. 

Key takeaways included: 

  • The Impact of COVID-19 on Housing 

The pandemic introduced unprecedented disruptions to the housing market. Supply chain issues and fluctuating costs created uncertainty for developers, while favorable interest rates initially spurred investment. However, as market conditions shifted post-COVID, rent growth cooled, and urban centers faced unique challenges in attracting residents. Panelists noted that mixed-income housing developments struggled under these conditions, and developers faced new hurdles in securing financing and maintaining existing zoning standards. 

  • Legislative and Policy Hurdles 

Policy changes, including Measure ULA ("mansion tax," a special real property transfer tax on sales exceeding $5 million), SB 330 (a California law aimed at addressing the state's housing shortage by expediting housing development and limiting local government's ability to restrict housing projects), and SB 91 (COVID-19 Tenant Relief Act, extends eviction protections to COVID-19 impacted tenants), have significantly shaped the real estate market. Marsh and Rocca detailed the challenges of securing stable zoning standards under SB 330, while Hungerford highlighted the benefits of state density bonus laws. The panelists collectively emphasized the need for legislative certainty, as political risk remains a major deterrent to development in LA. 

  • Wildfires and the Housing Market 

The devastating 2025 wildfires placed additionalstrain on the region’s housing supply. Demand for larger floor plans increased as people soughtsafer, more resilient housing options. However, rebuilding in fire-impacted areas remainsa challenge due to regulatory hurdles and the need for better coordination between state and local governments. Panelists stressed the importance of state leadership in expediting housing approvals and streamlining environmental review processes to support faster recovery. 

  • Government Support and Industry Collaboration 

State and local government intervention is crucial in addressing LA’s housing crisis. Industry leaders called for more consistent regulations, third-party consultants to facilitate development, and better collaboration between the public and private sectors. The importance of engaging elected officials to ensure they stay informed on evolving housing laws was also underscored. 

Paydar also mentioned the challenges of rebuilding in single-family neighborhoods and the need for comprehensive community support, especially the implementation of a “community plan”;i.e.,how to treat the sidewalks, public benefits, and so forth. 

  • Future Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities 

Despite the challenges, the panelists expressed cautious optimism about the future. The recent crises—COVID-19 and wildfires—have created an opportunity to push for much-needed regulatory reform. Marsh noted that Los Angeles has been slower returning to pre-COVID-19 rents, as most of the country has returned to normalcy five years later. Cities like Thousand Oaks and Culver City, which have proactively updated zoning laws, offer models for more effective housing development. 

Investment opportunities still exist, particularly for developers who can navigate political uncertainties and find strategic locations. The discussion concluded with a reminder that with the right policies, collaboration, and support, LA’s housing market can evolve to begin to meet the region’s needs. 

  • Action Steps Moving Forward 

Audience members questioned the panelists on how they as a collective can help the city move forward after this devastating time. This is what the panelists advised: 

  • Engage with policy leaders: Reach out to Supervisor Kathy Barger's office to advocate for developers' inclusion in wildfire advisory panels. 

  • Support fire-affected communities: Coordinate with private industry groups to create and distribute resources for homeowners and property owners impacted by wildfires. 

  • Leverage crisis for reform: Explore how recent disasters can be used to push for regulatory changes that facilitate housing development. 

  • Educate and advocate: Continue engaging with elected officials and city staff to streamline approval processes and remove barriers to housing construction. 

  • Pursue strategic development:Identify opportunities in proactive cities like Thousand Oaks and Culver City, which have updated their general plans and zoning laws to support housing. 

The conversation surrounding LA’s housing market is far from over. Reaume sees the recent fires as a catalyst for real change and the opportunity to create a better path forward.The solutions discussed in this panel provide a foundation for meaningful change, but action from developers, policymakers, and community stakeholders is essential. As the city grapples with these pressing issues, continued dialogue and collaboration will be key to shaping a more resilient and accessible housing market for the future. 


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